The Japanese yen (JPY) fell against the US dollar (USD) after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its very loose policy settings and cap on the 10-year JGB yield, but said it will manage the yield curve more flexibly to respond to up and downside trends.
At its Friday meeting, the BOJ maintained a band around the 10-year JGB yield of +- 0.5% with a yield target of around 0%. However, the Bank of Japan adjusted the rate at which it offers fixed-rate purchase operations for consecutive days from 0.5% to 1.0%, effectively signaling its willingness to allow the 10-year JGB yield to temporarily rise above the 0.5% upper bound. The proposed change would maintain the rate cap but allow a modest increase above that level.
2% inflation target unchanged
With the BOJ committed to leaving the broader policy settings unchanged until it achieves the 2% inflation target in a stable and sustainable manner, the sharp rise in USD/JPY suggests that the YCC upgrade is likely to be seen not as a signal of monetary tightening, but of sustainable yield curve management in an environment of rising global yields.
Testing the top of the recent range
USD/JPY is holding above the local low of 137.25 from mid-July. While this support remains in place, the decline from early July can at best be considered a consolidation within a temporary uptrend (since the beginning of the year). The uptrend is also supported by a very strong Market Profile level at 135.60, which is also supported by the 200-day moving average.
